Household Tariff Basket Calculator

This calculator estimates how much recent US import tariffs could add to a year of household spending. Enter what you expect to spend on eight import-heavy categories and choose a pass-through assumption. It applies each category's trade-weighted tariff rate and shows the tariff cost embedded in that spending and the share likely to reach you. It is for informational purposes only, and the result is a rough estimate of a range, not a precise figure.

For the research behind the pass-through assumption, read will tariffs raise consumer prices.

The eight basket categories and their rates

Rates are the site's trade-weighted category averages of the tariffs added since 2025 (data vintage June 9, 2026). You can change the dollar amounts. The rates are fixed.

How the calculator does the math

For each line: tariff in spending = spend × rate, and passed to you = tariff × pass-through. The totals add up the eight lines.

With the defaults, $9,700 of spending at 55% pass-through:

Rows are rounded to the cent; the calculator sums unrounded values. So $9,700 of import-heavy spending carries about $1,064 of tariff at full pass-through, and about $585 at 55%.

Step 1: get your spending numbers right

Start from your own bank or card history for the last 12 months if you can. If not, the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure Survey gives national averages per household ("consumer unit") for 2024:

• Apparel and services: $2,001. That includes services such as dry cleaning, so clothing and shoes are somewhat less.
• Vehicle purchases (net outlay): $5,337, averaged over households that did and didn't buy a vehicle.
• Entertainment, which includes toys, games, and hobbies: $3,609.
• Personal care products and services: $978. That includes haircuts and salon services, which aren't imported goods.
• Total average spending: $78,535.

These averages include services and domestically made goods that tariffs don't hit directly. Use them as a ceiling, not as an input.

Step 2: enter only import-exposed spending

The biggest error is entering your whole category budget. Ask for each line: how much of this was imported, or made mostly from imported parts?

• Clothing and shoes: check the country-of-origin labels on what you usually buy. If most say a foreign country, most of your spending belongs in the box.
• Furniture: check labels and product listings. Furniture sold in the US is a mix of domestic and imported goods, and the exposure differs completely between the two.
• Electronics: smartphones show a 0% added rate in the data, so leave phone purchases out of this line or expect little effect from them.
• Cars: enter the price only in a year you buy. A vehicle that qualifies under USMCA, assembled in Mexico, Canada, or the US with enough regional content, faces lower tariffs than one imported from overseas, which can pay the full 25% Section 232 rate.

Step 3: choose a pass-through assumption

Because you enter retail spending, the pass-through percentage here means the share of the tariff rate that turns into a percentage price increase at the store. That is how the Federal Reserve's retail studies define it. Useful reference points:

• About 28–32% for China-origin goods, comparing price increases through December 2025 with the tariff change (FEDS Notes, March 2026).
• About 26% of the 2025 tariff increase reaching consumer prices, including indirect effects through domestic goods (NY Fed Staff Report 1201).
• 100% is an upper bound for planning. If the full rate passed to shelf prices with no absorption, the result equals the tariff total.

A practical approach is to run 30%, 55% (the default), and 100%, and treat the spread as your range.

Worked example: a family that isn't buying a car this year

A family of four plans these purchases over the next 12 months, all mostly imported: $1,200 of furniture, $1,000 of electronics excluding phones, $1,500 of clothing, $300 of shoes, $400 of toys and sporting goods, a $600 washing machine, and $400 of personal-care products. No vehicle.

Tariff in that spending:

• Furniture $194.40 + electronics $70.00 + apparel $150.00 + footwear $28.80 + toys $38.80 + appliance $78.00 + cosmetics $31.60 = $591.60

Estimated cost to the family:

For this family, recent tariffs plausibly add about $180 to $590 a year, most likely toward the lower end in the first months after a change and rising as prices adjust.

Worked example: a year with a vehicle purchase

A single driver plans to buy a $40,000 vehicle assembled overseas, plus $800 of clothing and $500 of electronics.

• Auto line: $40,000 × 10.0% = $4,000
• Apparel: $800 × 10.0% = $80
• Electronics: $500 × 7.0% = $35
• Tariff total: $4,115. At 30% pass-through that is $1,234.50, and at 55% it is $2,263.25.

The vehicle dominates. The 10% auto rate is an average across all origins, though. A vehicle from a country without a negotiated rate can face the full 25% Section 232 tariff, while a USMCA-qualifying model faces much less. Automakers also decide how to spread tariff costs across models, including domestically built ones. Treat the auto line as a rough indicator, and compare actual sticker prices across origins when you shop.

Updating your estimate when rules change

Tariffs changed several times in 2026, and the basket's rates are fixed at the June 9, 2026 data. When a major change is announced:

1. Note the categories it affects and the size of the change in points.
2. For an increase, add the extra points to your own estimate for that line: spend × extra points × pass-through.
3. For a removal, don't assume prices drop right away. Retailers' existing inventory was bought at the old cost, and refunds of struck-down tariffs go to importers, not shoppers.

What the estimate leaves out

• Older duties. Duties in place before 2025 are excluded, which is intentional: they were already in prices.
• Line-level spikes. The appliances line uses the 13.0% machinery average, but refrigerator-freezers and window air conditioners show 25% in the line data as steel derivatives. If a big appliance is your main purchase, your exposure is closer to 25% on that item.
• Rule changes after June 9, 2026. On July 24, 2026, the 10% Section 122 surcharge was replaced by Section 301 duties of 10% or 12.5%, depending on origin. For goods from China or Vietnam, the clothing, toy, and footwear rates are now about 2.5 points higher than the basket uses.
• Scheduled increases. Upholstered wood furniture is scheduled to go from 25% to 30%, and kitchen cabinets and vanities from 25% to 50%, on January 1, 2027.
• Domestic price effects. US-made goods can also rise when imports get pricier. The NY Fed estimate above includes this channel, and the basket's import-only inputs don't.
• Groceries, gas, and services. These are mostly outside the basket. Coffee shows a near-zero tariff rate in the data.

Using the result

• Budgeting: add the 55% figure to your annual budget as a line item, and revisit it when you plan large purchases. The inflation savings calculator helps you see how rising prices affect savings goals.
• Big-ticket timing: for furniture or cabinets, the January 1, 2027 step-up is a known date. Retail inventory bought before then may still reflect today's rates.
• Single products: to test one purchase in detail, including retail markup, use the tariff pass-through calculator.

For a broader look at who absorbs tariff costs between factories, importers, stores, and shoppers, read who pays import tariffs.